Somalia: Conflict and political violence (as of 12 Dec 2012)

Maplecroft’s Somalia conflict and political violence map illustrates the multitude of extreme security risks posed to businesses operating in the country.
Much of central and southern Somalia is controlled by al-Shabaab, a militant Islamist group who has waged a violent insurgency against the Mogadishu-based federal government since 2006.

However, a significant international military operation - conducted under the auspices of the African Union - has inflicted notable defeats on al-Shabaab, forcing the groups’ withdrawal from Mogadishu in 2011, and from their key logistical hub, Kismayo, in October 2012.

In response to mounting territorial losses, it is likely that al-Shabaab will migrate to the autonomous northern region of Puntland, which suffers from a weak institutional capacity to enforce the rule of law.

In the medium term, Puntland’s remote Golis Mountains could provide an ideal harbouring location for al-Shabaab to reconsolidate their operational capabilities, and re-launch their insurgency, for example by targeting the nearby regional commercial capital of Bosaso.