Somalia's market update and analysis

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Monthly market's update - Somalia

Regional Market Highlights

Juba Valley: Prices of imported food, cereals and livestock declined in February. The ToT (12Kg/daily wage rate) maintained the previous month’s level. Compared to a year ago, prices are significantly lower for imported food and local cereals, whereas they are considerably elevated for livestock. Annual comparisons of ToT between labor and cereals also indicate a significant improvement in purchasing power for casual labourers.

Sorghum Belt: Reduction in prices of imported food, sorghum and livestock were recorded in February. The ToT between labour and cereals accelerated, in Gedo and Bay, remained unchanged in Bakool and decreased in Hiraan. Year-on-year price comparisons indicate a significant decrease for imported commodities and local cereals and a remarkable increase for livestock. More specifically, the ToT nearly doubled in Hiraan over the past year, increased significantly in Bay, remained stable in Gedo and declined in Bakool.

Shabelle Valley: Monthly prices of imported food, maize and livestock declined. The ToT is up by one unit (14kg of maize for a day’s worth of labour). Prices of most imported commodities and cereals are significantly lower while prices of livestock are significantly higher compared to the levels in the reference period in 2012.

Central:Imported food and livestock prices decreased slightly but the cost of red sorghum went up in February 2013. Annualcomparisons indicate significant decreases in the prices of all items except in livestock prices, which have increased significantly. ToT (rice/ local goat) sustained January 2013 levels but is higher when compared to a year ago (Feb 2012), currently standing at 56kg/ local goat.

Northeast: Price of most monitored commodities remained generally stable in comparison with previous month. However, pricesdeclined significantly from a year ago for imported commodities and red sorghum but rose slightly for livestock. ToT (rice/ local goat)

was relatively stable (77kg/local goat) over the past month although it is significantlyhigher when compared to the February 2012

levels.

Northwest:Prices of imported food, cereals and livestock remained stable with the exception of local quality goat that reducedremarkably. Compared to February 2012, the prices have reduced for locally produced cereals but accelerated for imported commodities and livestock. The monthly ToT between local white sorghum and local quality goat declined to 92kg per head of goat. However, the

ToT is significantly higherwhen compared to the same month last year.

Banadir: Prices of imported food and white maize decreased moderately while goat prices incresaed in February. With the exception of highly valued goats, prices of imported food and locally produced cereals were significantly below their levels a year ago. ToT cereal (maize) labour/wage was one unit down from the preceding month to close at 16 kgs/ daily labour rate.

Table 1: Monthly and Annual Changes in Terms of Trade-Cereals (kg) per Daily Labour Wage Rate

Regions

Cereal used

Feb. 2012

Jan. 2013

Feb. 2013

Monthly

Annual

change

change

(kg/daily

(kg/daily wage)

(kg/daily wage)

(%)

(%)

wage)

Banadir

White Maize

10

17

16

-6%

60%

Bay

Red Sorghum

24

24

29

21%

21%

Bakool

Red Sorghum

9

6

6

0%

-33%

Gedo

Red Sorghum

17

16

17

6%

0%

Hiraan

White Maize

9

21

17

-19%

89%

Juba

White Maize

8

12

12

0%

50%

Shabelle

White Maize

10

13

14

8%

40%

Northeast

Red Sorghum

5

7

7

0%

40%

Northwest

White Sorghum

11

12

12

0%

9%

Central

Red Sorghum

6

8

8

0%

33%


For more information, FSNAU's full report is attached.